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8/13/2010

Patrick J. Hynes: Nothing's Wrong With New Hampshire

While I was growing up in the 1980s, the map showing New England states’ political leanings was a source of pride.

My beloved New Hampshire stood out as an oasis of conservative common sense — immersed in a sea of liberalism. The red and blue color-coded dichotomy was not yet the standard, but the maps made plain the differences between my home state and the rest of the Northeast. Differences as obvious as those personified by New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.

Over the years, however, the Republican advantage in New Hampshire dissipated. Then entirely disappeared. In 2004, Democrats took the State House. In 2006, they took both congressional seats and won a majority in both chambers of the state Legislature and the state’s anachronistic executive council.

In 2008, former-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeated Sen. John E. Sununu. Republicans were circling the drain. A Gallup study from August 2009 showed the Granite State indistinguishable from the rest of New England. Democrats had an 18-point advantage over Republicans in party identification.

One year later, I feel like a kid again.

Gallup’s latest analysis from late-July 2010 shows the Granite State in strong contrast against the rest of New England – a red splotch on a wall of blue. Gallup now lists New Hampshire among the “Top 10 Republican States.” Republicans have a 6-point advantage over the Democrats.

How did Republicans convert an 18-point disadvantage into a 6-point advantage in one year? The answers may not be pretty. But they reflect important realities in modern U.S. politics.

First, not having George W. Bush to kick around has exposed the vacuousness of the state Democrats’ message and agenda. While it may be fashionable on the political left to blame Bush for everything, conservatives and Republicans must concede that Bush’s unpopularity played a significant role in the GOP’s declining fortunes in New Hampshire.

Bush never clicked with Granite Staters. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) beat him in the 2000 primary by 19-points. Bush tallied fewer votes than the combined Al Gore and Ralph Nader vote. And Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush during the 2004 re-elect. Simply putting pictures of Republican Reps. Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley next to Bush in TV ads was enough to turn New Hampshirites off to the Republican Party. Now that he is gone, the spotlight is on the Democrats. But it shines just as hot and just as sharply.

Second, by focusing on fiscal issues instead of defending an unpopular war, Granite State Republicans have successfully depicted the Democrats as the party of big spending programs, big deficits and crippling debt.

Democrats are, of course, coconspirators in crafting this message. After years of railing against irresponsible GOP spending policies, the Democrats in the federal delegation voted for bloated budgets, a failed stimulus and ObamaCare. In politics, being a hypocrite is worse than being a scoundrel.

Third, the Republicans learned to play politics again. For years the New Hampshire GOP behaved like the entrenched, entitled party it had become. Energized Democrats had their foot on the Republicans’ throats, and the Republicans got comfortable lying on their backs.

But former-Gov. John Sununu’s efforts as the state’s GOP chairman, and his aggressive team of operatives, have flipped that dynamic upside down. Democrat policy claims are challenged aggressively; videos of their statements are posted on the Internet and scrutinized; their occasional histrionics are singled out for scorn and no longer seen as genuine.

It hasn’t always been pretty -- and any notion of neighborly Yankee camaraderie has been long forgotten. But the GOP is now paying the Democrats back in their own coin. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who got her start as a semi-professional heckler of then-incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley, is now routinely shouted down at her own town hall meetings -- which she has now ceased to conduct.

What is happening in New Hampshire, of course, is reflective of what is happening nationwide. And we Granite Staters are proud to influence national political trends --, which we do every four years as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state.

So Gallup’s new map of New England -- with a solitary dot of conservatism -- may conjure up some sweet nostalgia. But it may also foretell a broader swing to the right throughout the country.

Patrick Hynes is the founder and president of Hynes Communications. He served as online outreach consultant in Sen. John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign.